The Matador – Taking the USD Bull down
Red Flags and Green Eyes
The USD has been very strong against all counter symbols for an entire month, practically “smashing” everything in its path. It all began with the aspiration for an Bullish ABC sequence for the DXY, a view which was shared with the “Bull Riding – Rodeo Trading – Intraday Market Orders” article. Impressive Impulses began right there and then.
The Bullish Rally was explained and foreseen with the previously posted “USD a.k.a. Dollar Hulk – Green Bull Rodeo” article. It was indeed the Hulk, what a ride!
That was the time when EUR/USD, GBP/USD, XAU/USD, XAG/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, all of them have gone Bearish. USD/JPY & USD/CHF went Bullish of course.
Back then, I was being realistic and did not want to “jump the gun” and call for a Bullish Extension all the sudden, but it happened, and many traders were in the green. I was pleased, very.
Challenge behind charting
After that, when EUR/USD, GBP/USD and XAU/USD were approaching significant levels, I posted the “Market Shift – USD Getting Trashed – Huge Trades” article, looking for a possible Reversal.
EUR/USD & GBP/USD Aggressive views and Invalidation levels got hit, and Moderate Entries are still in play. For XAU/USD, 1285.00 seems to be holding so far. I am not disappointed with this view, it was a good choice to be on alert for that scenario and there are still valid reasons on why they should reverse.
The most recent article posted is the “Reversal Set-ups – Month of May – BUY/SELL Orders” view, which is also in focus at these times because multiple assets mentioned are located at crucial levels. I believe it still needs a bit more time to start growing.
Preparing for the rodeo
Between the lines, and in the meantime, LEWA’s valued members were updated constantly, either weekly with the “Wave Counts & Updates” section or Daily, in the Green Room. Everyone knows what to expect and we’re all interested in finding this Bull’s weakness.
The present article represents a follow-up, update or continuation of the be above mentioned views.
Taking the bull down
Technical view and Charts
The Dollar Index (DXY) could be turning Bearish soon. This is because regardless of the structure type, it should show a significant Retracement at least, if it would be destined to continue breaking ceilings.
The location for DXY, as per the current wave count, would be:
- Sub-Minuette V (light blue), of Minuette (c) (orange), of Minute Y (pink).
The current view is still Bearish and DXY would retrace considerably, even if it would show a Correction and not a Bearish Impulse. What is important to say is that, according to how the structure on the down-side would unfold, more details will reveal, and the bigger picture would become clearer. For instance, if the Bearish Swing would be an Impulse, then I will be on track. If the Structure would have Corrective features, then this would mean that Intermediate (4) (red) would become in fact a larger degree B wave, due to the time it took for the development.
All symbols mentioned above are approaching crucial levels and Reversals could be in play or around the corner.
EUR/USD & XAU/USD are both showing Bullish Divergences at Fibonacci Extensions for the larger degree Corrective Structures.
USD/JPY & USD/CHF are also showing Ending Diagonals with Bearish Divergences, at important Fibonacci Retracements.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Daily Chart (picture)
Dollar Index (DXY) – Daily Interactive Chart
Dollar Index (DXY) – 2H Chart (picture)
Dollar Index (DXY) – 2H Interactive Chart
BUY & SELL – Orders
XAU/USD – 2H Chart (picture)
XAU/USD – 2H Interactive Chart
XAU/USD – BUY Positions:
- Aggressive Entry @ 1285.00 with SL @ 1265.00 (triggered)
- Moderate Entry @ 1275.00 with SL @ 1255.00
- Targets @ 1325.00 / 1350.00 / 1370.00 / 1400.00 / 1450.00
Crude Oil (WTI) – 4H Chart (picture)
Crude Oil (WTI) – 4H Interactive Chart
Crude Oil (WTI) – SELL Positions:
- Aggressive Entry @ 72.25 with SL @ 75.00
- Moderate Entry @ 74.00 with SL @ 77.00
- Targets @ 64.00 / 60.50 / 57.50 / 54.50
EUR/USD – 2H Chart (picture)
EUR/USD – 2H Interactive Chart
EUR/USD – BUY Positions:
- Aggressive Entry @ 1.1750 with SL @ 1.1600
- Moderate Entry @ 1.1650 with SL @ 1.150
- Targets @ 1.2140 / 1.2350 / 1.2500 / 1.2600 / 1.2700 / 1.2800 / 1.2900
USD/JPY – 2H Chart (picture)
USD/JPY – 2H Interactive Chart
USD/JPY – SELL Positions:
- Aggressive Entry @ 111.25 with SL @ 111.25
- Moderate Entry @ 112.00 with SL @ 112.75
- Targets @ 108.50 / 107.00 / 105.50 / 104.00 / 103.00
USD/CHF – 2H Chart (picture)
USD/CHF – 2H Interactive Chart
USD/CHF – SELL Positions:
- Aggressive Entry @ 0.9950 with SL @ 1.0050
- Moderate Entry @ 1.0000 with SL @ 1.0100
- Targets @ 0.9750 / 0.9600 / 0.9450 / 0.9300 / 0.9250 / 0.9150
NZD/USD – 2H Chart (picture)
NZD/USD – 2H Interactive Chart
NZD/USD – BUY Positions:
- Moderate Entry @ 0.6820 with SL @ 0.67250
- Targets @ 0.7050 / 0.7250 / 0.7400 / 0.7550
DAX30 – 2H Chart (picture)
DAX30 – 2H Interactive Chart
DAX30 – SELL Positions:
- Moderate Entry @ 13150.00 with SL @ 13300.00
- Conservative Entry @ 13250.00 with SL @ 13450.00
- Targets @ 12750.00 / 12450.00 / 12200.00 / 12000.00 / 11850.00 / 11650.00 / 11500.00
Safety measures:
- When in the green, moving SL to beak-even or in profit
- Getting confirmation from a Bearish Divergence at the end of the 5th Wave for DXY, with symbols correlations and inverted set-ups or Reversal Patterns
- Waiting for reactions signs at or around 93.90 on DXY and watching the Fibonacci Extensions or Golden Ratio
