Patterns & July Projections – Orders & Trading Set-ups

The Patterns are becoming more and more complex as time unfolds, and the Market is developing difficult Structures, this way demanding respect.

Looking back at the previous set-ups posted, one may notice that this USD bull does not want to be taken down easily.

The Fight

The real fight started with the “DXY Matador – Taking the USD Bull down” article and back then the Patterns were lining-up for Reversals. The first round was won, and the set-ups went in favor of the analysis. Metals bounced on the up-side, WTI tanked, Indices delivered an impressive fall, and some of the Forex pairs went as planned.

In short, most of the trading set-ups were doing good and the view was worth it. There were some good pips in the green for those views and for the ones which did not go so well, at least they provided a break-even chance at one point.

Can’t complain, it was a good round overall.

The Battle

It became serious when the Bull started fighting back and making life harder, practically wanting to call it a draw. This Bull is one of the strongest I’ve ever dealt with. After the “DXY – Hibernation Over – Ending Diagonal” video the USD lost ground and this is when I was under the impression that I could actually win the next round too. I was half right, again.

Then, with the “FED Rate Hike – Elliott Wave vs Fundamentals” article I was at it again, throwing spears and fighting back. Article was good, it went as predicted, at least on the Fundamental side. But! This Bull is no ordinary bull, it means business and it’s angry. Reversed on the up-side once more, leaving me with an average type of analysis and with a break-even view again.

I took a hit.

The Respect

It was clear that this Bull was developing very complex Patterns and it’s hard to take it down. I had to reassess, take a break, and prepare more. The Bull earned my respect.

A pause was needed, along with more preparation and patience, something which was done in the Green Room with daily updates.

I then went on the larger scales and reviewed the wave counts, changed the approach and posted the “Market Volatility in 2018 – Projections & Flash Crash Preparation” article. I threw this view as a “bait” to see how it reacts.

The VIX spiked and confirmed a risk-off period, explaining why this fight is hard to win. The Market is developing these types of Patterns because this is not a normal trading period, it’s officially dangerous and it can transcend into another Recession or a Market Crash.

However, when volatility returned along with the VIX small spike, some final legs of larger degree Patterns unfolded, this way revealing more evidence and clues.

Patterns seem to be at their ending points.

The Trading Plan

It’s clear by now, the USD is strong and keeps on going up when it’s not really supposed to. How does one analyze such complex structures?

This is a risk-off event, which can be translated with wild swings and red bars on most markets. It’s not a normal period and normal analysis does not work that well.

However, now I know what we’re facing. Most importantly, I know how to take it down this next round, found out it’s weakness.

USD is trying to trick traders again with a false break-out.