US-OIL-WTI – Triple Three – Bearish Intermediate (Z)

US-OIL-WTI unfolded several moves since the time we posted the “US-OIL-WTI – Impulsive Bearish Minute C” opportunity.
This post is a follow-up and can be considered an update as well.
The Structure is looking clearer as the recent Swings unfolded, therefore we decided to make another post which includes an update on the Wave Count and more accurate views.

US-OIL-WTI presents a Complex Triple Three Structure in Primary B (purple), as per the current Wave Count.
The Structure has changed from a Double Three to a Triple Three Pattern, which can be noticed from the way the recent Swings on the up-side unfolded, with another Corrective look.

US-OIL-WTI – Bigger Picture – Wave Analysis:

The OIL Market shifted towards the up-side in Feb 2016 and hit the Cycle Resistance in Jan 2017, with a price range between $26 and $55 per barrel.
Since Jan 2017 Price Action unfolded as a Complex Corrective Structure, giving traders headaches, tricking them into thinking that the US-OIL-WTI Bear Market is over.

US-OIL-WTI – Daily Chart (picture):

US-OIL-WTI – Daily – Interactive Chart:

US-OIL-WTI – Bullish Primary A (purple) – Wave Count:

• Intermediate (A) (green) unfolded with a typical 3 Swings Sequence in its Minor ABC (light blue) sub-waves, moving from $26 towards $51.50 Levels.
  That’s about it for the buying force, this was the strongest move on the up-side.
• Intermediate (B) (green) unfolded its Corrective Structure as a Running Flat, formed by its Minor ABC (light blue) sub-waves.
• Intermediate (C) (green) pushed higher with a standard 5 Swings Sequence in its Minor Waves (light blue) but only managed to hit the $55 mark.

The $55 Level is a Point of Interest due to the fact that we can clearly spot Selling Pressure during Intermediate (C) (green) timeline, hence the reason for reversing prematurely from the 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (green).

US-OIL-WTI – Complex Corrective Primary B (purple) – Wave Count:

The Wave Count would state that the Corrective Structure unfolded as a Triple Three within Intermediates (WXYXZ) (red), which would need another Bearish Swing in order to finalize.

• Intermediate (W) (red) unfolded with 3 Swings Sequence determining the Structure.
• Intermediate (X) (red) took most traders by surprise with its unexpected Running Flat which caused trades to doubt the charts and then realize that the Structure indeed changed to Complex.
• Intermediate (Y) (red) completed its Minors ABC (light blue) with a sustained fall towards the important $42 Support.
• Second Intermediate (X) (red) is unfolding as we speak and possibly ending soon, leaving room Intermediate (Z) (red) to possibly start unfolding its Bearish ABC Minors.

US-OIL-WTI – 4H Chart(picture):

US-OIL-WTI – 4H – Interactive Chart:

US-OIL-WTI – Intermediate (X) (red) – Wave Analysis:

Minor A (light blue):

• Minute A (blue) unfolded with 5 Swings Sequence, thus determining a Zig-Zag in Minute B (blue).
• Minute B (blue) retraced with 3 Swings Sequence, retracing more than 61.8% of Minute A (blue), thus leaving room for an extended Minute C (blue).
• Minute C (blue) unfolded with a Channelling Diagonal in Minuette (i) (black) and a sharp retracement in Minuette (iv) (black), followed by a reputable 5^th Wave within Minuette (v) (black) which unfolded as an ending Diagonal.

Minor B (light blue):

• Minor B (light blue) unfolded with a Complex Structure, more exactly with a Double Three, as per the WXY (turquoise).
  Within the Double Three Structure, Minute W (turquoise) shows a Contracting triangle within Minuette (b) (red) and an Ending Diagonal in Minuette (c) (red).
  Minute X (turquoise) also shows us a Contracting triangle which was followed by the last Bearish Leg in Minute Y (turquoise).

Minor C (light blue):

• Minor C (light blue) is taking a Rising Channel form, with the upper and lower Channel Trend-Lines acting as boundaries.
• Minute I (blue) bounced as an Impulse to the up-side, followed by a Sharp Pull-Back in Minute II (blue).
• Minute III (blue) has shown a consistent rise with a complicated Rising Double Three Pattern in Minuette (iv) (black).
• Minute IV is expected to retrace towards 38.2% Fibonacci Retracements of Minute III (blue) and gaining support on the lower Channel Trend-Line so that it can finalize the last leg up, as per the projected Minute V (blue).

Fibonacci Projections & Speculation:

• Minute V (blue) would be expected to complete at or around the 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minutes III & IV (blue), which are also 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors A & B (light blue).
• Minor C’s (light blue) ending would be confirmed and the Bearish Scenario would be favorable if at the projected Fibonacci Lines we would encounter a Double Top with a Bearish Divergence, which would be expected at the end of Minute V (blue).

US-OIL-WTI – Bearish Intermediate (Z) – SELL Positions:

Entry Levels:

• Aggressive – 53.50
  SL – 55.00
• Moderate – 53.85
  SL – 56.00
• Targets – 50.00 / 47.50 / 45.00 / 41.00

Safety Measures:

• When in the green, moving SL to break-even or in profit.
• Watching for Double Top and Bearish Divergence confirmations.
• If Conservative, getting confirmation from a Breach of the Rising Channel and then looking for a Flag Formation.

Many pips ahead!