US-OIL-WTI – Impulsive Bearish Minute C
US-OIL-WTI is trading within a Complex Corrective Structure and according to the current Wave Count, if correct, we would be expecting a last Bearish Swing before we could consider a Long-Term Bullish outlook.
US-OIL-WTI – Bigger Picture – Wave Analysis:
The OIL Market shifted towards the up-side in Feb 2016 and hit the Cycle Resistance in Jan 2017, with a price range between $26 and $55 per barrel.
Since Jan 2017 Price Action unfolded as a Complex Corrective Structure, giving traders headaches, tricking them into thinking that the US-OIL-WTI Bear Market is over.
US-OIL-WTI – Daily Chart(picture):
US-OIL-WTI – Daily – Interactive Chart:
US-OIL-WTI – Bullish Primary A (purple) – Wave Count:
- Intermediate (A) (green) unfolded with a typical 3 Swings Sequence in its Minor ABC (light blue) sub-waves, moving from $26 towards $51.50 Levels.
That’s about it for the buying force, this was the strongest move un the up-side.
- Intermediate (B) (green) unfolded its Corrective Structure as a Running Flat, formed by its Minor ABC (light blue) sub-waves.
- Intermediate (C) (green) pushed higher with a standard 5 Swings Sequence in its Minor Waves (light blue) but only managed to hit the $55 mark.
The $55 Level is a Point of Interest due to the fact that we can clearly spot Selling Pressure during Intermediate (C) (green) timeline, hence the reason for reversing prematurely from the 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (green).
US-OIL-WTI – Complex Corrective Primary B (purple) – Wave Count:
The current Wave Count would state that the Corrective Structure unfolded as a Double Three within Minors WXY (red), which would need another Bearish Swing in order to finalize.
- Minor W (red) unfolded with 3 Swings Sequence determining the Structure.
- Minor X (red) took most by surprise with its unexpected Running Flat which caused trades to doubt the charts and then realize that the Structure indeed changed to Complex.
- Minor Y (red) completed its Minute A (blue) with a sustained fall towards the important $42 Support.
Minute B (blue) is unfolding as we speak and possibly ending soon, leaving room for Minute C (blue) to possibly start unfolding its Bearish Swings.
US-OIL-WTI – 4H Chart(picture):
US-OIL-WTI – 4H – Interactive Chart:
US-OIL-WTI – Minute B (blue) – Wave Analysis:
- Minuette (a) (red) unfolded with 5 Swings Sequence, thus determining a Zig-Zag in Minute B (blue).
- Minuette (b) (red) retraced with 3 Swings Sequence, retracing more than 61.8% of Minuette (a) (red), thus leaving room for an extended Minuette (c) (red).
- Minuette (c) (red unfolded with a Leading Diagonal in Sub-Minuette i (turquoise) and a sharp retracement in Sub-Minuette ii (turquoise), followed by a reputable 3rd Wave within Sub-Minuette iii (turquoise).
Due to the Sharp Retracement in Sub-Minuette ii (turquoise), the Law of Alternation came into play for Sub-Minuette iv (turquoise), causing a Contracting Triangle in Sub-Minuette iv (turquoise).
Fibonacci Projections & Speculation:
- Sub-Minuette v (turquoise) would be expected to complete at or around the 61.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Sub-Minuettes iii & iv (turquoise), which are also 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Sub-Minuettes i & ii (turquoise).
- Minuette (c) (red) would be expected to complete at or around the 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minuettes (a) & (b) (red).
- Minute B (blue) Bearish Scenario would be favorable if at the projected Fibonacci Lines we would encounter a Double Top with a Bearish Divergence.
US-OIL-WTI – Bearish Minute C – SELL Position:
- Entry Level – 51.50
SL – 54.30
TP – 48.00 / 45.50 / 44.00
Safety Measures:
- When in the green, moving SL to break-even or in profit.
- Watching for Double Top and Bearish Divergence confirmations.
- Getting confirmation from a Breach of the Contracting Triangle.
4 Comments
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Richard
Corrective Structure Labels:
Richard
Bearish Breach – SELL Set-up – Confirmation:
Our direction remains the same and the main labeling as well.
The Structure indeed has changed and we do not believe that we will see $51.50 per barrel before the expected drop.
In the previous post we were expecting one more rise for Minute B (blue) which was invalidated and we decided to review the Wave Count due to the fact that a certain rules:
• Rising Channel was Breached and reentering was rejected.
• Price entered 20th of July high which invalidates any further short-term Bullish moves.
“I am advising some caution as this set-up is considered Aggressive.
Risk what you can afford to lose and keep in mind that if you snooze, you lose.”
WTI – 4H Chart (picture):
Wave Count Review:
• Minute B (blue) finalized in a Zig-Zag
• Minute C (blue) has started with Minuettes (i) & (ii) (red) completed and with a Bearish Extension on the way for Minuette (iii) (red).
• Sub-Minuette i (blue) unfolded as a Wedge or Leading Diagonal followed by a failed attempt to reenter the Rising Channel by Sub-Minuette ii (blue).
Bearish Breach – SELL Positions:
• Aggressive – Market Execution (after quick pull-back)
• Moderate – 48.30
• Conservative – 49.50
• SL – 50.55
• Targets – 44.50 / 42.00 / 40.50
Safety Measures:
• When in the green, moving SL to break-even or in profit.
• If Conservative or Moderate, waiting for a Flag Formation on the Red Trend-Line or the Channel, whichever case may be.
WTI – 4H Interactive Chart (picture):
Bearish Breach – SELL Set-up – Confirmation: by Libeloo24 on TradingView.com
Many pips ahead!
Richard
WTI – CRUDE OIL is developing a Complex Corrective Structure in Minor X (red).
Still Bearish!
Wave Count Update:
Richard
Trades stopped at BE or SL hit.