USD has been getting a lot of attention in 2018 and now I believe it’s time for profit-taking and the trash of the dollar.
Metals are starting bullish impulses and EUR as well.
WTI is finalizing the sell-off and most probably awaiting the USD’s weakness so it can thrive.
Indices however are complicated, with multiple possibilities on the table, more details are needed to see if the bull-market is returning or if this is just a bull-trap.
USD Sell-off & The Shift – Big Trends
Turning Points, Waves & Patterns
G20 Summit took place this week-end, and the outcome of the discussions held by the group of twenty finance ministers could trigger an increase in volatility. This would affect multiple sectors, as the FX Pairs and Precious Metals seem to be located at crossroads. Energy and Indices sectors have been having difficulties reinstating fresh bullish trends, with bearish sentiment hovering around them.
FED Chair Jerome Powell managed to tone down the greenback due to dovishness in his speech, and this caused sudden bullish reactions in EUR/USD and Gold.
Crude Oil has been constantly decreasing in in value, with West Texas Intermediate losing approx. $27 in value during the past two months. The OPEC meeting is awaited with high interest and an agreement for the production could dictate a new trend.
Indices are once again in focus, as important trend-lines are being retested in an attempt to break-out of bearish territory. US Indices would need to continue the bullish sequences in an impulsive manner and clear the waters before a bullish trend would be in play.
Structures & Technical Overview
In the lines below, screenshots with bullet-points are shared, with the focus remaining strictly on technical analysis.
* This article contains delicate information and should not be treated as investment advice or as a solicitation the trade. Risk must be considered.
FOREX MAJORS
Dollar Index (DXY) – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an ABC (red) sequence, with Minutes A & B (red) complete and the first leg of Minute C (red) already developed.
- Lower trend-line could be breached, thus paving the way for a bearish impulse as a possibility.
Dollar Index (DXY) – 2H Interactive Chart
EUR/USD – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an impulsive bullish Minor C (blue) leg, with Minute i and ii (green) already finalized.
- Minute iii (green) could commence a bullish impulse and could also present an extension.
EUR/USD – 2H Interactive Chart
GBP/USD – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an impulsive bullish Minor C (green) leg, with Minor A (green) finalized, and with Minor B (green) finalizing with Minute C (blue) with an Ending Diagonal.
- Minor C (green) could commence a bullish impulse and could also present an extension.
GBP/USD – 2H Interactive Chart
USD/JPY – 4H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an ABC (red) sequence, with Minor B (red) complete and the first leg of Minor C (red) already developed.
- Ascending Channel could be breached, and a down-trend could commence in Minute iii (red), in an impulsive and sustained manner.
- Harmonic ABCD Pattern could indicate a Bearish Butterfly.
USD/JPY – 4H Interactive Chart
USD/CHF – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an ABC (red) sequence, with Minutes A & B (red) complete and the first leg of Minute C (red) already developed.
- A bearish impulse could begin, in an aggressive manner.
USD/CHF – 2H Interactive Chart
METALS
Gold (XAU/USD) – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an impulsive bullish Minor C (blue) leg, with Minute i and ii (green) already finalized, and with Minuettes (i) & (ii) (black) already starting Minute iii (green).
- Minuette (iii) (black) could trigger a rally and define Minute iii (green), thus confirming a new trend.
Gold (XAU/USD) – 2H Interactive Chart
Silver (XAG/USD) – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled as an impulsive bullish Minor C (blue) leg, with Minute i (green) marked as complete, and with Minute ii (green) about to finalize its Double Three complex corrective sequence.
- Minute iii (green) could commence an impressive rally, which could present an extension.
Silver (XAG/USD) – 2H Interactive Chart
ENERGY
WTI – 4H Chart (picture)
- Labeled in a bearish impulse within Minor C (red), which presents an extension and a sustained sell-off.
- The down-trend could finalize with Minute V (red), with its last sub-wave Minuette (v) (black) possibly ending the bearish cycle in Minor C (red).
- Bullish divergence could trigger a new up-trend in Intermediate (C) (green).
WTI – 4H Interactive Chart
INDICES
Volatility Index (VIX) – 2H Chart (picture)
- Labeled in a “fear” cycle, with Minors 1 & 2 (red) complete, and with Minutes I & ii (red) possibly finalized as well.
- “Fear” spike could continue in Minute iii (red), which could cause a sell-off continuation in stocks and indices.
Volatility Index (VIX) – 2H Interactive Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) – 4H Chart (picture)
- Labeled in a complex corrective structure in Cycle Wave IV (green), with a Double Three pattern in its Intermediates (W)(X)(Y) (purple) sub-waves.
- Intermediate (W) (purple) has been labeled as a Triple Three pattern in its Minor sub-waves WXYXZ (pink), under a Descending Channel.
- Hidden (reversed) Bearish Divergence could synchronize with the upper trend-line (dotted black) of the Descending Channel.
- Significant trend-line (dotted red) which was previously breached is being retested, and a rejection could occur as a possible result, thus opening the possibility for more down-side.
- Intermediate (Y) (purple) could commence and could present a bearish impulse in a sustained sell-off.
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) – 4H Interactive Chart
* This article contains delicate information and should not be treated as investment advice or as a solicitation the trade. Risk must be considered.
