WTI (Crude Oil) – Bearish Sequence – Rising Channel vs Double Three

WTI (Crude Oil) enjoyed a magnificent rise in prices ever since summer 2017, as per the previously posted “CRUDE-OIL-WTI – Bullish Primary C- Long Term” article.

The Rally consists of an Impulsive Sequence which from the Elliott Wave perspective would signal more room for the up-side. However, a Retracement is required for the Cycle to continue.

Impulsive Bullish Swing has been labeled as Intermediate (A) (green) and as it can be seen, after it completed, the Corrective Pattern commenced in the beginning of 2018.

From a technical standpoint, the Corrective Pattern would suggest a possible Bearish outcome as the most likely next swing.

Corrective Pattern – Characteristics – Elliott Wave Labeling

 WTI (Crude Oil) – Daily Chart (picture)

 Intermediate (B) Correction (green) has been classified / labeled as a Double Three, which is developing within a Rising Channel and possibly awaiting important Fibonacci levels before a possible Bearish outcome.

WTI (Crude Oil) – Daily Interactive Chart

WTI (Crude Oil) – 4H Chart (picture)

Technicals & Bullet-points:

• Minor W (red) unfolded with a 3 swings sequence, which would imply that Minor Y (red) would also reflect an ABC structure
• Minor X (red) is Correcting Minor W (red) within Rising Channel, presenting multiple rejections
• Minor X (red) structure has been labeled as a Double Three, due to the channel retests and overall structures within in sub-waves
• Minute W (purple) is formed out of a Leading Diagonal in Minuette (a) (orange) and an Ending Diagonal in Minuette (b) (orange)
• Minute X (purple) unfolded as a Barrier Triangle, with its Minuette ABCDE (pink) sub-waves unfolding themselves as “threes”
• Minute Y (purple) is unfolding as Zig-Zag, and the reason behind the selection of this structure is because Minuette (a) (orange) contains a 5 swings sequence
• Minute Y (purple) would be expected to end its remaining swings at or around the 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions or Minutes W & X (purple)
• Minuette (b) (orange) unfolded as a Double Three, more exactly as a descending Double Flat within its Sub-Minuettes WXY (purple) sub-waves
• Minuette (c) (orange) would be expected to finalize at or around the 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minuettes (a) & (b) (orange)
• Minuette (c) (orange) end could possibly be confirmed with a Bearish Divergence at the end of Sub-Minuette V (light blue) and at the final retest of the Rising Channel upper trend-line

WTI (Crude Oil) – 4H Interactive Chart

 WTI (Crude Oil) – SELL Positions:

• Aggressive Entry @ 68.20 with SL @ 71.70
• Moderate Entry @ 69.85 with SL @ 73.20
• Conservative Entry @ the Exaggerated Fibonacci Extensions
• Targets: 64.00 / 60.50 / 57.50 / 54.50

Safety Measures:

• When in the green, moving SL to beak-even or in profit
• If Conservative, waiting for the overshoot above the upper trend-line of the Rising Channel
• Looking for the Bearish Divergence confirmation at or around the ‘’white box”

Many pips ahead!